QV’S House Price Index shows the average home value now sitting at $916,285. That figure is still 2.8 per cent higher than last year and 13.9 per cent ($147,480) lower than the market’s peak in late 2021.

QV says many house hunters are in hibernation until conditions improve, potentially on the other side of winter, maybe even longer.

“As a result, downward price pressure has spread across all segments of the market, with investors, owner-occupiers, and even first home buyers – still the most active group in the market today – all taking a noticeable step back as we pass the halfway point of the year,” says James Wilson, QV operations manager.

Home values dropped by an average 0.9 per cent nationally over the three months to the end of June, a slightly larger rate of reduction than the 0.2 per cent quarterly decline for May.

Once again, Auckland leads with a 2.6 per cent average home value decline this quarter – down from a 1.4 per cent drop in the previous index and marking five straight months of negative growth. Tauranga (-1.3 per cent), Palmerston North (-1.3 per cent), and Wellington (-1.2 per cent) experienced the next largest home value reductions on average this quarter.

Marlborough (0.9 per cent) was the only main urban area where the average rate of home value growth increased this quarter. The rolling three-month average remained steady from index to index in Hastings (0.9 per cent) and Queenstown (0.1 per cent), and it either dropped, or the rate of decline increased, everywhere else.

Wilson highlighted the relative strength of home values in the South Island, particularly around Invercargill (1 per cent) and Dunedin (1.3 per cent).

“There are some pockets of modest growth, most notably in the South Island. However, that also appears to be waning now, with even Christchurch and Queenstown – two of our more ‘bullish’ housing markets in recent years – now experiencing little or no growth whatsoever,” he says.

Patience name of the game

“Tough economic conditions are continuing to make it extremely difficult for potential buyers to save a sizeable deposit for a home, secure finance from the bank, and service a mortgage with interest rates currently sitting at about seven per cent and onshore inflation still biting.”

An abundance of listings is also having a cooling effect on the market, reducing remaining competition and therefore flattening growth across much of the country.

Meanwhile, Wilson says sellers are having to be increasingly patient. “Many residential property sales are now conditional on other sales occurring. This has been causing chain reactions in many instances, which is often extending sales periods or causing deals to fall over altogether.”

He says sellers are also having to adjust their price expectations in what has increasingly become a buyers’ market, albeit a pretty quiet one. He expects home values to soften further throughout the winter.

“There’s nothing to suggest house prices will take off again in the near future, while there’s everything to suggest that they will remain flat to gently falling.”

The recent shortening of the bright-line test will likely result in more listings coming onto the market, offering buyers even more choice and therefore keeping downward pressure on prices, he says.

“The recent introduction of debt-to-income restrictions and the loosening of loan-to-value ratios are not expected to have any material effect on the market in the short to medium term, particularly while interest rates remain at their high level.”

Northland home values

The average home value in Kaipara increased 0.8 per cent to $868,456 this quarter. Otherwise, values reduced by an average of 0.1 per cent in the Far North and by 0.6 per cent in Whangarei. The average home is now worth $726,177 in the former and $729,749 in the latter.

On an annualised basis, home values in the Far North are up 8.4 per cent on average. They are also 1.6 per cent higher on average in Kaipara and one per cent lower in Whangarei over the 12 months to the end of June 2024.

Auckland home values

Auckland’s average home value has now dropped for a fifth month in a row.

The index shows the average home value across the region has dropped 2.6 per cent to $1,250,372 this quarter. It follows five consecutive month-to-month declines: 0.4 per cent in February, 0.2 per cent in March, 0.1 per cent in April, 1.1 per cent in May, and now 1.4 per cent in June.

Of the Super City’s seven former local government areas, the largest average home value drop this quarter occurred in Manukau (-3.6 per cent), Rodney (-3 per cent) and Papakura (-2.7 per cent). Only Franklin (1.9 per cent) has a higher average home value than at the start of this calendar year.

“The Auckland housing market is pretty flat generally, which is fairly typical during the mid-winter months anyway,” says Hugh Robson, local QV registered valuer.

“However, reports from local real estate agents have been quite mixed, with some struggling to sell and reporting little interest being shown at open homes and people hesitant to make offers. Others have reported a somewhat improving situation, but vendors and purchasers have to be realistic in order to reach a deal.

“Homes in popular locations, such as inner city and coastal suburbs, are selling better than less desirable areas,” he says. “Otherwise, there are still quite a few townhouse developments with unsold homes.”

Tauranga home values

The rate of home value decline has remained relatively steady in Tauranga this quarter.

The index shows the city’s average home value reduced 1.3 per cent to $1,027,306 this quarter – down from a three-month average rolling rate of one per cent negative growth in the previous index.

The city’s average home value is now 0.8 per cent lower on average than at the start of this calendar year, but still 2.9 per cent higher than at the end of June last year.

Waikato home values

Home values have dropped on average in all bar three of Waikato’s local council areas this quarter.

Thames-Coromandel (0.7 per cent), Waipa (0.1 per cent) and Taupo (1.4 per cent) all experienced a modest amount of home value growth, despite values edging down 0.2 per cent on average across the wider region. The largest declines were in South Waikato (-2.3 per cent) and Matamata-Piako (-2.3 per cent).

“The regional housing market is now exhibiting signs of decline, consistent with the typically quiet winter trading season,” says local QV property consultant Marshall Wu.

In Hamilton, the average home value decreased 0.3 per cent to $781,975, which is just a fraction of a percentage point off the 0.4 per cent quarterly reduction recorded in the previous index. Annually, that figure remains just 0.8 per cent higher than the same time last year.

“Local real estate agents report that listing numbers remain relatively high, and many vendors appear to be adopting more realistic price expectations, often reducing their asking prices to gauge the market’s response. The housing market appears to be shifting in favour of buyers, particularly first-home buyers,” Wu says.

Taranaki home values

Residential property values have lessened across the Taranaki region this quarter at an average rate of 1.6 per cent.

The largest reduction was in Stratford, where the average home value dropped 5.1 per cent to $479,919. South Taranaki wasn’t far behind; its average home value dropped 4.4 per cent to $433,085.

In New Plymouth, home values declined by a comparatively modest 0.8 per cent on average. The city’s mean average home value is now precisely $715,681, which is just 0.1 per cent higher than at the end of June last year.

Hawke’s Bay home values

The Hawke’s Bay housing market has performed steadier than most this quarter.

Home values have increased in Napier at an average rate of 0.4 per cent in the June quarter – a small reduction in the 1.2 per cent growth for the May quarter – while Hastings posted the same amount of growth this quarter as last at 0.9 per cent.

The average home value in Napier is $760,738, which is 3.2 per cent higher than at the end of June last year. In Hastings, that figure is $788,852, which is 3.1 per cent higher than the same time last year.

Palmerston North home values

Home values have dropped for a third month in a row in Palmerston North.

The city’s average home value declined 1.3 per cent to $637,525 this quarter. That figure is 1.7 per cent higher than at the end of June last year but is also 0.8 per cent lower than at the start of this calendar year.

Local QV registered valuer Olivia Betts says since June last year, the overall statistics have shown a relatively consistent pattern in Palmerston North, indicating a modest increase over the past 12 months. However, the housing market is exhibiting a notable divergence between different market segments.

“Properties with older, dated features are struggling to attract buyers. They are often sitting on the market for prolonged periods.

“In contrast, there has been a marked increase in interest for homes that have undergone recent modernisation, reflecting a growing preference for updated amenities and aesthetics among prospective buyers, as reported by industry agents.”

Meanwhile, she says concerns over affordability were persisting, with potential buyers having to contend with higher interest rates.

“Looking ahead, these rates are expected to remain elevated over the next six months, posing continued challenges for borrowers seeking to enter or move within the market.

“This economic backdrop underscores the complex dynamics influencing housing trends, where property condition and financial accessibility play crucial roles in shaping buyer behaviour and market outcomes.”

Wellington home values

Wellington’s average home value has dropped slightly for the third month in a row.

Values reduced by an average of 1.2 per cent in the June quarter, compared to a 0.3 per cent quarterly deduction reported in the previous index. The mean average home value in the region is now $865,129, which is 4.8 per cent higher than the same time last year and 20.8 per cent ($227,836) lower than the market’s peak in late 2021.

Once again, Kapiti Coast has recorded the largest amount of positive growth on average this quarter – and is the only local council area to do so in this month’s index. Its average home value increased 0.9 per cent to $841,882.

Meanwhile, the average home value in Upper Hutt reduced 2.2 per cent to $757,416 this quarter, which is the largest average reduction this quarter. Porirua saw the smallest drop on average this quarter, with its average home value reducing 0.2 per cent to $833,612.

Local QV senior consultant David Cornford says property values declined again last month, due to under-pressure vendors being forced to accept lower prices to achieve a sale.

“There continues to be plenty of options for buyers due to the large number of properties on the market and a high number of motivated vendors. As such, it continues to be a buyers’ market.

“They’re continuing to take a cautious approach given the economic conditions, and generally, only those with strong job security are willing to take on additional debt. This is resulting in a relatively quiet property market.”

Nelson home values

Nelson’s housing market has cooled with the season.

The city’s average home value has shrunk by another 0.9 per cent in the June quarter to reach $771,804. That figure is now one per cent less than the same time last year, and 0.7 per cent less than at the start of the 2024 calendar year.

QV Nelson/Marlborough manager Craig Russell says values are relatively weak, reflecting a high interest rate environment, the increased cost of living, and a weak economy.

“Listing numbers remain high within Nelson, but buyers are cautious and completing significant due diligence. We’re seeing numerous price reductions, with some properties even being withdrawn from the market entirely until conditions improve,” he says.

West Coast home values

Home values slipped back one per cent on average on the West Coast this quarter.

However, there was some growth in Grey District, where values increased 1.1 per cent to a new average of $423,749. Otherwise, the average home value in Buller dropped 3.7 per cent to $357,600, with the average home value in Westland also reducing 1.5 per cent to $441,193.

Canterbury home values

There has been a noticeable seasonal shift in Canterbury’s cooling housing market, exacerbated by ongoing economic conditions.

The latest index shows home values have grown across the region by an average of 0.3 per cent this quarter – less than the 1.4 per cent growth recorded in the May quarter, but still above a national average decline of 0.9 per cent.

Across the greater Canterbury region, just Timaru (-1.8 per cent) and Waimate (-2 per cent) posted average declines in home value this quarter. Values increased 5.4 per cent in Ashburton, but otherwise only modest growth was recorded everywhere else.

In Christchurch, the average home value ($764,228) declined 0.9 per cent last month, reducing the Garden City’s quarterly average home value growth to zero. The surrounding districts of Waimakariri (0.3 per cent) and Selwyn (0.7 per cent) also recoded modest growth this quarter.

“The Canterbury region’s property market has slowed overall,” says local QV senior consultant Olivia Brownie.

“It’s a buyers’ market, which means there is ample opportunity for prospective purchasers to negotiate on price, with difficult economic factors also continuing to provide downward pressure on values.”

Otago home values

Home value growth remains sluggish but still largely positive across the wider Otago region.

Once again, just Clutha saw a small decline this quarter, with its average home value reducing by 0.4 per cent to $407,954.

Otherwise, the regional average was 0.7 per cent growth – down slightly on the 1 per cent growth recorded for the three months to the end of May.

In Dunedin, the average home value increased 1.3 per cent to $643,554 this quarter. That figure is 4.8 per cent higher than the same time last year and 2.6 per cent higher than at the start of this calendar year.

QV registered valuer Rebecca Johnston says there has been a noticeable drop-off in open home attendance. “The relatively large number of properties available for sale on the market today is keeping the ball firmly in buyer’s courts – though economic conditions remain rather difficult for most.”

She says a subdivision that recently opened in greenfield land had achieved good sales so far. “Otherwise demand for vacant land continues to remain average in the medium term, restricted further by many lenders requiring fixed-price build contracts. Developers are now beginning to build on land, selling house and land packages to shift the risk away from buyers and lenders.”

Queenstown home values

Queenstown’s average rate of home value growth has remained flat.

The average home value has increased by just 0.1 per cent to $1,828,344 in the June quarter – the same rate of growth as in the three months to the end of May, but trending downward from 2.7 per cent and 1.1 per cent growth in the three months to the end of March and April respectively.

The average home value is now 6.9 per cent higher than at the end of June last year and 2.8 per cent higher than at the start of this year.

Invercargill home values

The average home value in Invercargill increased just one per cent this quarter – but that was enough to outperform almost every other main centre in this month’s index.

The average home value in the country’s southernmost city is now $485,551, which is 7.1 per cent higher than the same time last year. However, its rolling three-month average rate of growth has reduced from 3.2 per cent in both April and May.

Local QV registered valuer Andrew Ronald says market conditions are flat across all price brackets. There is still steady demand from first-home buyers, and investors are beginning to return to the market with the restoration of interest tax deductibility rules.

However, continued high interest rates appear to be limiting price growth.